The 2024 MCCA midyear homicide data suggests that 2024 is on track for historic declines. But extrapolating midyear data from a few cities to national yearend data seems risky. This post suggests it may be okay to do so here.
Category: Crime
Some Grim But Also Unexpected Calculations About Police Sexual Violence Towards Children
A recent WaPo article on sexual violence against children by police had some shocking numbers. My goal here is to put them into a bit more context, which tells a complex story.
Crime Decline, Prison Decline, September 11th, and the Peculiar Politics of Punishment
A famous Gallup poll is often cited by crime-studying types as evidence that Americans are ignorant about crime trends. I think it actually sheds some important light on how the politics of crime are really about broader, deeper fears.
Local Government Employees and the Opportunity Cost of Policing
For all our talk about defunding the police (which didn't happen), we ignored how we did in fact significantly reduce local government employment. And an excellent recent article by John Roman suggests this played a big, but underappreciated, role in driving up homicides and shootings in 2020.
Prisons, Prosecutors, and the Politics of Punishment 