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Prisons, Prosecutors, and the Politics of Punishment

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Local Government Employees and the Opportunity Cost of Policing

On November 28, 2023November 28, 2023 By John PfaffIn Crime, Data1 Comment

For all our talk about defunding the police (which didn't happen), we ignored how we did in fact significantly reduce local government employment. And an excellent recent article by John Roman suggests this played a big, but underappreciated, role in driving up homicides and shootings in 2020.

A First Look at Sentence Length: Shorter Than Many May Think, and It’s All About Violent Crimes

On November 13, 2023November 13, 2023 By John PfaffIn NCRP, Prisons2 Comments

While it is true that criminal sentences in the US can often be longer than those in Europe, the numbers here show both that typical sentences, even for violence, are not that long, and that the long tail of punishment is driven primarily by violent crimes.

The Critical Importance of “Churn”

On November 6, 2023 By John PfaffIn NCRP, Prisons3 Comments

Most of our discussions of prison populations focus on the one-day count of people in prison. Looking at the types of people we admit can tell a different story, and an important one.

Reform Prosecutors: The Winners and the Losers

On November 2, 2023November 2, 2023 By John PfaffIn Data, Prosecutors2 Comments

As far as I know, there is no single list of not only all the people who have been elected as reform prosecutor, but also of those who have run and lost. Here I provide my first effort at such a list, which currently runs to 128 current, former, and unsuccessful reformers.

Mass Shooters, Mental Illness, and a Critical Statistical Mistake

On October 31, 2023October 31, 2023 By John PfaffIn Uncategorized4 Comments

A study tells us that 70% percent of mass shooters have blue eyes. That might not mean that having blue eyes helpfully predicts mass shooters. There's a big, often overlooked, statistical pitfall so many accounts about mass shooters fall into.

Millions of Uncounted People in Prison (Sort Of)

On October 30, 2023October 30, 2023 By John PfaffIn NCRP, Prisons1 Comment

The not-unreasonable way we define our incarceration rate actually misses hundreds of thousands of people each year who pass through our prisons, which means we've undercounted the impact of prisons by millions over the years.

Welcome

On October 27, 2023October 31, 2023 By John PfaffIn UncategorizedLeave a comment

My goals for this blog, and why I hope you'll want to read along.

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